Presenter: Ganesh Gopalakrishnan (Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD)
Description:
A regional implementation of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology - general circulation model (MITgcm) -- Estimating the Climate and Circulation of the Ocean (ECCO) system is used to produce ocean state estimates and forecasts of the Loop Current (LC) circulation in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). The system uses a strong constraint four-dimensional variational (4DVAR) method to match the model evolution to observations by adjusting model controls. A variety of observations are synthesized including satellite-derived SSH, SST, and in situ observations of temperature, salinity, and horizontal velocities. Two study periods were chosen based on extensive in situ GoM observations (2009--2011) and anomalously extended LC state (2014--2015). Monthly analysis and 3-month long forecasts from the end of each monthly analysis were produced and were analyzed focusing on LC eddy shedding events. Model hindcasts and forecasts were compared with assimilated and future observations, respectively. Model forecasts were better than persistence forecasts. Results from additional experiments by changing assimilation windows and atmospheric forcings will also be discussed.
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Full list of Authors
- Bruce Cornuelle (Climate, Atmospheric Science and Physical Oceanography, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA.)
- Daniel Rudnick (Marine Physical Laboratory, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA.)
- Julio Sheinbaum (CICESE, Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico)
- Peter Hamilton (Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, NC State University, USA)
- Kathleen Donohue (Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island, USA)
- Randolph Watts (Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island, USA)
- Ruoying He (Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, NC State University, USA)
- Steven Morey (Florida A&M University, USA)
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Analysis and prediction of Loop Current circulation in the Gulf of Mexico
Category
Scientific Session > PL - Physical Oceanography: Mesoscale and Larger > PL12 Understanding and Predicting the Gulf of Mexico Ocean Dynamics
Description
Presentation Preference: Oral
Supporting Program: None
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