Presenter: Karim Alizad (University of South Carolina and USGS St. Petersburg Marine Science Center)

Description:
Microtidal estuaries are the most vulnerable systems to sea-level rise and climate change due to their low tide range. Marine-dominated estuaries are particularly susceptible due to a lack of riverine sediment input. The Grand Bay estuary, located on the border of Alabama and Mississippi, is a microtidal marine-dominated system where coastal managers are seeking restoration strategies to increase resiliency to sea-level rise. The integrated coastal wetland model Hydro-MEM was applied to investigate the proposed restoration methods and assess the effects of increasing sea level on Grand Bay including the vast area of the Pascagoula and Escatawpa Rivers and surrounding marshes. Hydro-MEM couples a two-dimensional hydrodynamic and parametric marsh model to assess marsh response to sea-level change [Alizad et al., 2016a,b; Alizad et al., 2018]. Model results provide spatially resolved output of marsh productivity and vegetation change projections, as well as marsh migration under the two sea-level rise scenarios of intermediate-low (50 cm) and intermediate-high (1.2 m) by the year 2100. This presentation highlights the value of integrated physical and ecological modeling to assessing strategies to increase coastal resilience. References Alizad, K., S.C. Hagen, J.T. Morris, P. Bacopoulos, M.V. Bilskie, J. Weishampel, and S.C. Medeiros (2016a), A coupled, two-dimensional hydrodynamic-marsh model with biological feedback, Ecological Modeling, 327, 29-43,10.1002/2016EF000385. Alizad, K., S.C. Hagen, J.T. Morris, S.C. Medeiros, M.V. Bilskie, and J.F. Weishampel (2016b), Coastal wetland response to sea-level rise in a fluvial estuarine system, Earth's Future, 4(11), 483-497, 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.01.013. Alizad, K., S.C. Hagen, S.C. Medeiros, M.V. Bilskie, J.T. Morris, L. Balthis, and C.A. Buckel (2018), Dynamic responses and implications to coastal wetlands and the surrounding regions under sea level rise, PLOS ONE, 13(10), e0205176, 10.1371/journal.pone.0205176