Presenter: Matthew Poti (NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science)

Description:
Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument (PMNM) was established in 2006 and expanded in 2016 to protect a range of unique resources in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI), including deep-sea coral and sponge (DSCS) communities. The NWHI are a hotspot for DSCSs, although much remains unknown about their distribution in the region. As the climate changes, filling these information gaps is critical for marine managers to be able to track the health of these vulnerable and ecologically important communities over time. Since surveying the entire PMNM is not feasible, spatial predictive modeling was used to identify potential distributions of DSCSs inside its boundaries. Maps of the predicted distributions were created by integrating DSCS observations with spatial environmental predictors using three statistical modeling approaches: Boosted Regression Trees (BRTs), Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), and Maxent. Predictions from these different models were combined to create one ensemble prediction for each of the DSCS taxa selected by local experts. The ensemble predictions for 22 DSCS taxa were subsequently summed to estimate DSCS richness in the region. This richness prediction was used to identify and prioritize potential sites for future exploration and research as well as for evaluation of enhanced resource protection in PMNM. This work was funded and led by NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS), and conducted in close partnership with NOAA PMNM, NOAA Deep Sea Coral Research and Technology Program (DSCRTP), Hawaii Undersea Research Laboratory, and Florida State University. It leverages significant investments made by several organizations, including NOAA DSCRTP, NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration and Research, Ocean Exploration Trust and NOAA NCCOS. For more information, please see: https://coastalscience.noaa.gov/project/predicting-and-characterizing-deep-sea-coral-habitats-within-the-papahanaumokuakea-marine-national-monument/.